NFL: Minnesota at New Orleans (8:30 PM ET, ESPN)
Already struggling at 1-3, Minnesota continues a difficult stretch of games with a Monday night contest in New Orleans.
2008-10-03
Already struggling at 1-3, Minnesota continues a difficult stretch of games with a Monday night contest in New Orleans. The Saints are a 3-point opening line favorite, but come in on a long-standing run of just 16-35 ATS at home versus teams with a losing record. Even still, 88% of the early money was on the Saints as of Friday.
The favored team in this head-to-head series is on a run of 5-1 SU & ATS in the head-to-head series between these teams. The OVER is 7-1 in the L8 games. This is the middle game of a 3-game homestand for New Orleans, who is 2-0 SU & ATS at the Superdome after going just 5-12 ATS in two prior years under Sean Payton at home. The game could come down to Minnesota’s ability to run the ball. The Vikings average over 140 YPG on the ground, while New Orleans allows 122.5 YPG and 5.2 YPR.
Throw Adrian Peterson and Reggie Bush onto the same field, and who knows what types of highlight reel plays are possible. The Vikings slumped to 1-3 after losing a 30-17 decision at Tennessee last week behind 199 yards passing from Kerry Collins. Unfortunately for Minnesota head coach Brad Childress, the Titans are far from a
chuck-and-duck offense, yet Collins nearly turned Justin Gage into a 100-yard receiver (five catches, 92 yards).
The return of Deuce McAllister didn't impact much of the Saints' gameplan, because Drew Brees still attempted 35 throws last week and is on pace for 592. He already ranks third in attempts in a season, putting up 652 passes a year ago. What it means for the Vikings is their linebackers and secondary should pack the track shoes for the turf at the Louisiana Superdome. Though the defensive backs haven't been hammered by the long pass-a Brees specialty, as he's completed 15 for at least 20 yards-opposing quarterbacks
have a completion percentage of 61.8. Even without top targets, Marques Colston and tight end Jeremy Shockey, Brees easily handled the San Francisco defense, throwing three touchdowns, all in the first half of the 31-17 win. Lance Moore filled in for David Patten and grabbed seven balls for 101 yards and two scores.
Gus Frerotte has no chance to match the firepower across the field, because the Vikings current wide receiver crew puts them in the position of bringing a knife to a gun fight. Unlike New Orleans, which can win in a variety of ways, Minnesota's only shot to win each week is on Peterson's shoulders. Hampered by a hamstring injury the last two games, Peterson has just 35 carries for 157 yards.
The New Orleans defense is slowly starting to jell after an offseason overhaul. Linebacker Jonathan Vilma followed up a 16-tackle performance with seven more against San Francisco, and the Saints run defense continues to improve. After allowing Tampa Bay and Washington to combine for 295 yards on 51 carries, the Broncos and Niners managed just 197 on 42 attempts. Throw in the ever-increasing sack contributions across the board (six last week), and New Orleans has a strong defense brewing.
PREDICTION
The move to Frerotte has done nothing for the Vikings other than put window dressing on what's rapidly becoming a bad campaign. At 1-3, the playoffs are fast becoming a pipe dream in Minnesota. The Saints have little trouble knocking off a reeling franchise. MINNESOTA 24, NEW ORLEANS 20
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