NFL point spread
March 10th NFL news ... Welcome to NFL point spread, the sports betting informational site for those that bet on the NFL.
Welcome to pointspreadnfl.net, the sports betting informational site for those that bet on the NFL.
In order to score a profit on professional football, you need to be in tune with all of the key statistics, trends and news. By checking out the site during the football season, you will have access to all of that key information as well as all of the spreads, information on line movements and in depth analysis.
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NFL: AFC-NFC Pro Bowl (6:20 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-29
The site of the 2010 Pro Bowl has changed, as it will be played at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, as opposed to Hawaii. The timing of the game has also changed, with it being played as a lead-up to the Super Bowl, rather than a follow-up. How does it figure to affect the contest, or the wagering on it? Let’s see if we can dissect it. In any case, the NFC is the 2.5-point favorite at last check, and 84% of bettors at Sportsbook.com apparently feel that is too low. The total is set at 57.
This will be the 40th version of the Pro Bowl, and interestingly, the NFL chose to mark the occasion with some experimentation. The changing of the date was done to promote the Super Bowl week, as opposed to the Pro Bowl being an afterthought it has been in the past.
The problem with the change in most people’s minds is that no members of the Colts or Saints, the league’s two best teams who will meet in Super Bowl XLIV, will be available to play. That fact cost the game 14 players, and the problem was only exacerbated later with regrets by 21 other players who were named to the Pro Bowl but declined due to injuries.
The site change is noteworthy for no other reason than this will be the first time in 31 years that the game will be somewhere other than Honolulu, HI. Not since the 1978 season has the game been played somewhere other than the 50th state, though the game is slated to return to Hawaii for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. It remains to be seen what type of panic might ensue if the elements come into play on Sunday and the field gets torn up for next week’s all-important game.
In terms of who will be manning the sidelines, San Diego head coach Norv Turner and Dallas head man Wade Phillips will guide the AFC and NFC squads. Phillips will be coaching in his first Pro Bowl, while Turner will be presiding over his second. Turner coached the AFC to a 42-30 loss following the 2007 season, when his Chargers lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. The two coaches met in the regular season, when San Diego pulled off a 20-17 upset of Dallas on December 13th.
The NFC leads the all-time Pro Bowl series by a 20-19 margin, including wins in the last two games.
The NFC was a 30-21 winner in last year's contest, with Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald earning MVP honors after catching five passes for 81 yards and two touchdowns in the triumph, parlaying his Super Bowl performance of seven catches for 127 yards and two TD’s.
Digging into the game a little bit, with the Saints' Drew Brees and Vikings' Brett Favre unavailable to play, the NFC offense will be guided by quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, Donovan McNabb (3553 passing yards, 22 TD, 10 INT) of the Eagles, and Tony Romo (4483 passing yards, 26 TD, 9 INT) of the Cowboys. Even with the two NFC title game combatants backing out, this is still a star-studded trio. Rodgers, who threw for 4,434 yards and 30 touchdowns against just seven interceptions while leading Green Bay to a playoff berth, will be making his first appearance in the game. The receiving corps will include the Eagles' DeSean Jackson (63 receptions, 9 TD) and Cowboys' Miles Austin (81 receptions, 11 TD), both of whom are expected to start, with the 49ers' Vernon Davis (78 receptions, 13 TD) getting the start at the tight end spot. The Vikings' Adrian Peterson (1383 rushing yards, 18 TD) is expected to open in the backfield one week after his fumble-laden performance in the NFC Championship. The offensive line will be led by Minnesota guard Steve Hutchinson, who makes his seventh consecutive Pro Bowl appearance.
The game will feature a “no-blitz” rule as always, meaning pressure on the passer will have to come from the down linemen. In this case, for the AFC, with would-be starting ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis of the Colts both unavailable due to their Super Bowl commitment, Mario Williams (38 tackles, 9 sacks) of the Texans and Kyle Vanden Bosch (44 tackles, 3 sacks) of the Titans will get the first crack at Rodgers and the NFC quarterbacks. Broncos outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil (41 tackles, 17 sacks), who led the NFL in sacks in 2009, will also be involved. On the back end, a star-studded secondary paced by perhaps the league's top three cornerbacks - the Jets' Darrelle Revis (49 tackles, 6 INT), Raiders' Nnamdi Asomugha (29 tackles, 1 INT) and Broncos' Champ Bailey (61 tackles, 3 INT) - along with starting strong safety Brian Dawkins (95 tackles, 2 INT) of Denver, will focus on slowing the NFC receivers.
Like the NFC, the AFC team will not be without its top QB’s, in this case, three of them. With Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady all unavailable on Sunday, the AFC will go with NFL passing yards leader Matt Schaub (4770 passing yards, 29 TD, 15 INT) of the Texans, with the Titans' Vince Young (1879 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) and Jaguars' David Garrard (3597 passing yards, 15 TD, 10 INT) both backing him. Young will be appearing in his second Pro Bowl game, after making it as a rookie in 2006. Houston's Andre Johnson (101 receptions, 9 TD) and Denver's Brandon Marshall (101 rushing yards, 10 TD) will open at wideout for the AFC, with the Chargers' Antonio Gates (79 receptions, 8 TD) starting at tight end. Among the notable reserve pass-catchers is the Bengals' Chad Ochocinco (72 receptions, 9 TD), who makes his sixth Pro Bowl appearance. A standout AFC backfield will include NFL Offensive Player of the Year Chris Johnson (2006 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 16 TD) of the Titans, along with the diminutive Maurice-Jones Drew (1391 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 16 TD) of the Jaguars and Ray Rice (1339 rushing yards, 78 receptions, 8 TD) of the Ravens. Jets guard Alan Faneca and Titans center Kevin Mawae, who now have 17 Pro Bowl appearances between them, anchor the line.
The NFC will look to pressure the AFC quarterbacks with Vikings end Jared Allen (43 tackles, 14.5 sacks), Panthers end Julius Peppers (36 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Cowboys outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (47 tackles, 11 sacks). Their defensive backfield features Asante Samuel (43 tackles, 9 INT) of the Eagles and Terence Newman (61 tackles 3 INT) of the Cowboys, in addition to safety Nick Collins (47 tackles, 6 INT) of the Packers. The linebackers are headed by 49ers middle man Patrick Willis (113 tackles, 3 INT), among others.
Prediction: On paper, you certainly have to like the QB rotation of the NFC much better than that of the AFC, with Rodgers, Romo, and McNabb all capable of lighting up the scoreboard. That said, the AFC defensive backfield is one of hall-of-fame credentials and certainly won’t make things easy. With the total set at 57 for this contest, we’ll go with a rare predcition of an UNDER in the game, with the NFC pulling it out 24-20.
NFL: Early Super Bowl Preview
2010-01-26
The Super Bowl matchup is set, with Indianapolis and New Orleans getting two weeks to prepare for their championship showdown in Miami. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have already weighed in on their thoughts, installing the Colts as 4-point opening line favorites. That number has since moved to 5.5-points, with Indy getting about 64% of the action according to the BETTING TRENDS page. Read on for a quick look at the backdrop surrounding Super Bowl XLIV and stick with Sportsbook.com from now till kickoff of the big game for more great coverage.
Peyton Manning survived an early knockout attempt by the Jets, guided the third-biggest comeback in AFC Championship Game history—11 points—and shredded Gang Green’s No. 1-ranked defense in the process. The NFL’s regular season Most Valuable Player threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-17 victory that ended far better than it started.
The Colts scored the game’s final 24 points and routinely made big plays against a New York defense that rarely allowed them through its first 18 games. Manning completed five throws of at least 20 yards and turned the tide with a four-play, 80-yard drive late in the second quarter that cut the 11-point deficit to just 17-13 at halftime. Head coach Rex Ryan’s team never recovered.
New Orleans proved to be equally resilient despite being dominated in almost every aspect of last Sunday’s NFC Championship Game by Minnesota, including total yards (475-257) and time of possession (36:49-27:56). The Saints squeaked by the Vikings, 31-28 in overtime, to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
Along with Manning, Super Bowl XLIV also features the runner-up in the NFL MVP race, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, who finished the regular season with 34 touchdowns and has added six more in two postseason victories. There are few differences between the two signal-callers, other than Manning’s overwhelming postseason experience. The Colts quarterback is now 3-2 in AFC title games (9-8 overall) and looks to win his second Super Bowl title in the last four seasons.
Regardless of who’s in the huddle, the two quarterbacks never lack confidence in flinging the ball around. Against the Jets, Manning’s top targets, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, who each had at least 100 catches and 1,000 yards receiving during the regular season, combined for seven grabs and 90 yards. So, he turned to second-year wideout Pierre Garcon (11 catches, 151 yards, one touchdown) and rookie Austin Collie (7, 123, 1). Brees spread the ball around to eight different receivers, three of whom scored in the NFC title game.
The overall series between the teams is tied at 5-5, but the Colts have won the last two meetings, the most recent a 41-10 blowout in 2007.
PREDICTION
There’s no question Manning can keep up with Brees in a shootout. What is an issue is whether or not his defense can do enough to slow New Orleans down. The Colts knocked off a pair of run-oriented offenses (Ravens and Jets) in their first two playoff games, but the well-balanced Saints present a far bigger problem. NEW ORLEANS 38, INDIANAPOLIS 32
NFL: MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS (6:40 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-22
For the 2010 NFC Championship Game, Brett Favre returns to the site of his biggest career win ever, hoping to put his new team in position to reach similar lofty heights. Favre won his only Super Bowl in New Orleans while with the Packers, and now, with Green bay’s biggest rival, the Vikings, can put himself in position to capture an improbable second title. The Saints are at home and favored by 3.5-points at Sportsbook.com though, and just as hungry as Minnesota to win a first ever NFL title. Betting action is split fairly evenly on the side, but nearly 75% of bettors expect this game to fly over the total of 53.
Favre was phenomenal in Sunday’s rout of Dallas, throwing a career playoff high four TD’s, adding to what has been a MVP-caliber season. Getting past this game won’t be easy though, as the league’s best offense awaits, with another prolific quarterback at the controls, Drew Brees, who’s Saints seemed to pick up where they left off about six weeks ago with a 45-14 win over Arizona in the Divisional Round.
New Orleans was installed as a 4.5-point favorite at opener for the contest, and is right where it wants to be, at home in front of what figures to be a raucous crowd. The Saints are 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS at home this season while scoring 33.2 PPG. Minnesota is just 4-4 SU & ATS on the road, but is also capable of putting up points, 29.2 PPG thus far. You have to figure Saints coach Sean Payton would love to get into a shootout though, as he is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. very good offensive teams scoring >=27 PPG as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. The average score in those games was NEW ORLEANS 40.5, OPPONENT 24.3.
This game of course, is unfamiliar territory for both franchises, as neither has ever won a Super Bowl, and the winner will get the chance to do so in two weeks. The Vikings haven’t been in the conference title game since the infamous loss to Atlanta at home in ’99. For as comfortable as he looked on Sunday at the Metrodome, Favre hasn’t won a road playoff game since the ’98 NFC title game. New Orleans is playing for a conference title for the second time ever (’07 loss at Chicago). The Vikings own a 4-0 SU & ATS edge in the head-to-head series since ’02, including a 30-27 win at the Superdonw in October ’08.
Here is StatFox Steve’s take on the NFC title tilt, straight from the Platinum Sheet…In my opinion, the NFC Championship Game comes down to whether or not the Saints offense is “back” from its late season struggles. Can the performance over Arizona’s inept defensive unit really be enough to springboard New Orleans on to Miami? The fact that the Saints are at home makes this answer a little easier, as the Superdome tends to make them faster and more comfortable. Can you believe how good Reggie Bush looked on Saturday? HC Sean Payton’s team averages 33.2 PPG at home and topped the 30-point plateau six times in nine contests as hosts. To me, that indicates that Minnesota is going to have to score at least 30 points itself to win this game. If you don’t think the Vikings can, then by all means you cannot play them against the spread, as if you read the article on pgs 4-5, you’ll see that hosts playing as favorites in the -3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Round games are 13-8 SU & ATS since ’93. The straight up winner is 21-0 ATS in such games! In other words, for both of these contests, you may think getting some extra points might help you, but history has shown that the game winner will cover. With that in mind, I turn to a prolific Money Line FoxSheets Super Situation that will be in play for Sunday’s game: Play On - Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after a win by 28 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. (31-1 since 1983.) (96.9%, +29.3 units. Rating = 5*). I don’t like the way Minnesota has transformed into a one-dimensional club, and with Brett Favre’s recent road playoff history, I don’t think he can keep up with Drew Brees here. Saints win, 34-20.
Play: Minnesota -3.5
NFL: Can the Jets and Vikings win on the Money Line?
2010-01-21
Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs in the Conference Championships on Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettor. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover often in this round, but they lose outright. The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread, with seven outright losers, six from the AFC. This means bettors at Sportsbook.com could be in for a healthy return on investment in back one or both of the underdogs.
Confident New York rolling
The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Sportsbook.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but itself for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself. The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to a 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and ‘00 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.
In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is a unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, leading to bad throws and possible picks.
The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo, behind a talented offensive line, averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, and he has been making better throws especially once the second half arrives.
NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and aren’t worried about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.
Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.
Minnesota is Favre-ulous
It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season, with a .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).
It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome, he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, simply testing his arm and coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.
While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, the Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.
The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, the possibilities start to open up.
This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for the NFC title game failure while with Green Bay two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.